Bob Bryan in Business Insider:
There's mounting anecdotal evidence that President Donald Trump's trade war is causing trouble for the US economy and businesses. But Friday's report on third-quarter gross domestic product may be the best hard evidence yet that the tariffs are causing major disruptions in the economy.
GDP rose at an annualized rate of 3.5% in the third quarter. But the contribution of net exports of goods and services — the measure of how much trade added or subtracted to GDP growth — was a dismal -1.78 percentage points.
- It was the largest negative contribution to GDP growth for trade in 33 years; in the second quarter of 1985, trade subtracted 1.91 points.
…
Uncertainty over trade policy may have also contributed to muted growth in capital expenditures by businesses. Nonresidential fixed investment — spending on large-ticket items like equipment — added only 0.12 points to GDP growth, the lowest in seven quarters, while overall fixed investment was a 0.04-point drag, the worst in 10 quarters.
Companies have said that this uncertainty and the possibility that tariffs will push up costs elsewhere could result in decreased capex spending.