Events like these have huge ramifications for those inside that country, including potentially more separatism, but not so much elsewhere. In short, direct effects matter a lot [update: see statement by Scottish National Party leader], but indirect lesson learning does not. Why? For the former, the exit will directly affect the interests (incomes!) and power of those inside the UK, leading to stronger interests on the part of the Scots to leave (although it may not be as instant as some might have thought). For the latter, the problem is that there are multiple lessons to learn. For those who want to leave the EU or separate from their current country, they can look at Brexit and say: they did it, we can do it too, taking away the positive lessons. For those who don’t want to leave the EU or secede from wherever, they can observe the economic shocks and other painful consequences and learn that this would be awful for them. Let confirmation bias be your guide, I always say. Again, multiple lessons to learn, so which lessons will people take away?
