A lot happening in the world around us, even as it's hard to keep up with everything at home.
Controversial referendums on independence are scheduled in Iraqi Kurdistan on Sept. 25 and the Spanish region of Catalonia on Oct. 1. Both referendums place these secessionist regions on a collision course with their central governments and the international community, increasing the probability of conflict...
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A secessionist movement can take two approaches to achieving independence. The first is to target their central government, the chief obstacle to any movement for achieving independence. If the government permits the independence, as Serbia did for Montenegro in 2006, then the path to sovereign statehood is almost certainly guaranteed.
The second approach is essentially an end-run. Here, the movement goes around the central government to bring the international community into the game. As in South Sudan, the international community can either pressure the central government to permit the independence or, as in Kosovo, it can bypass the central government entirely to recognize the secessionist region. Most secessionist movements use both approaches...