A lengthy, and academic, take on the prospects for democracy around the world. A very good read for anyone interested in dipping their toes into what goes on in the ivory tower or behind the closed doors of the defense establishment in the U.S. Very smart people, doing very careful analyses.
Above all else, these last two points—about 1) the resilience of existing democracies to the stress of the past several years and 2) the persistence and even deepening of pressures on many surviving authoritarian regimes—are what make me bullish about the prospects for democracy in next five to 10 years. In light of current trends in China and Russia, I have a hard time imagining both of those regimes surviving to 2025. Democratization might not follow, and if it does, it won’t necessarily stick, at least not right away. Neither regime can really get a whole lot more authoritarian than it is now, however, so the possibilities for change on this dimension are nearly all on the upside...